lunes, 24 de enero de 2011

Trading 25

Nadal - Ferrer
Lay Nadal 323 uds. @1,14
riesgo: 45 uds.

Apuesta arriesgada la de este trading pues todos sabemos como confía el mercado en Rafa pero creo que al igual que pasó ayer con Federer hay un cierto "temor" ante el juego/físico de ambos tenistas (Fedex ha solventando estas dudas endosando un 3-0 a Waw :-( y que a medida que se acerque el partido las cuotas subirán un poco...yo personalmente sigo pensando lo que publiqué ayer y a pesar de que Rafa ganó en sets corridos creo que fue mas por los innumerables errores no forzados y ocasiones desperdiciadas del croata que por su propio buen juego que desde luego a rachas lo tuvo. Un Ferru con un 12-3 lastimoso en su contra en el h2h lo tiene muy dificil pero llega con su tenis rozando su máximo nivel y espero que el resto de los apostadores lo vea como yo simplemente para darle mas opciones que ese increible @8,6 que se paga por su victoria.

Esta vez debido al riesgo de ir contra el núm.1 y a la cantidad elevada que nos pemite manejar su lay tan bajo no seremos demasiado ambiciosos y nos bastará con que suba 1 ó 2 décimas....si evoluciona como espero me fijo ya mismo la salida en @1,16 repartiendo beneficios y si va al revés (esperemos que no!! ya comentamos), así que:

Back Nadal 318 uds. @1,16

Nadal - Cilic

Mis pensamientos acerca del partido de hoy:

tough call as my heart says one thing and my brain other...

nadal comes to this stage without losing a single set but with some doubts about his fitness and game stats...he had a tough match against local idol Tomic who could punish more than that straight sets victory when leading 4-0 in that 2nd set and getting intimidate by num.1 game since then...but its not an easy task to fall apart our beloved Rafa...all we know about his “game spirit”, “killer instinct” and most important his “survival skills”...

He came AO with just one mission and he is committed 110% with his goals but....

There is one fact i always pay attention about Rafa: his words during tournaments talking about his game and sensations...i reckon some of u talk about excuses but i only appreciate OBJECTIVE & CRITICISM analysis every week in his own words...and he uses to be CLINICAL imo....
...that said we cant forget his words before this match: “he is not ok..he is sweating more than usual...even training..maybe a virus....bla bla bla (see below posts)” and that should be a big CONCERN for this encounter

U know he will give his best and this is a Grand Slam he loves but in front of him is a player who has won him in his previous encounter (ok...rafa was not at his best then but should be a little moral advantange to cilic knowing he can do it)and who apparently comes rested to this math..ive heard about his 5 setter with Isner but....is that a tough match??..just serving and waiting for rest?? dont think so...forget about Cilic tired

Cilic is worth a SUPERSHOT at these odds and i will be betting in live as that @1,13 for our NUM.1 is just ridiculous...i know Rafa could go out there and win this easy if he is fit in straight but most of us thought the same about Soda xdd (congrats @sleepwalker) against Dolgo.

Veredict:
Tennisinsight GAME: DOUBLE HUGE CILIC
Real Cash: +6,5 Cilic big big stakes - laying rafa @1,13 with trading purpouses